Over the past five years, Texas and Florida have emerged as epicenters of population growth in the United States. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s ACS5 (American Community Survey), along with GIS tools and statistical techniques implemented in R, we analyzed the growth trends between 2018 and 2023. The maps presented here provide a visual representation of where this growth has occurred and which areas have seen population loss.
How the Analysis Was Conducted
For this study, we utilized the U.S. Census Bureau’s ACS 5-Year Estimates to assess population trends at the census tract level. The data was accessed through the R programming language with packages such as tidycensus and tidyverse, which allowed us to efficiently retrieve, process, and analyze the data. This data was then analyzed using ArcGIS Pro and the Hot Spot Analysis spatial statistics tool.
Our GIS-based maps visualize census tract-level population change across both Texas and Florida. Red areas indicate regions of significant population growth, while blue areas represent population loss. Statistical techniques were applied to identify and highlight spatial patterns in growth.
Population Growth Trends in Texas
Texas continues to experience significant population growth, with much of the change concentrated in major metropolitan areas such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. These urban and suburban regions reflect red “hot spot” clusters, indicating statistically significant increases in population.
Houston: A Growth Powerhouse
Houston, the fourth-largest city in the United States, has seen remarkable growth driven by a strong economy and expanding suburbs.
- Suburban Expansion: Areas around The Woodlands, Katy, Sugar Land, and Pearland show red hot spots, reflecting substantial population increases as families and businesses relocate to more affordable suburban communities.
- Economic Opportunities: Houston’s diverse economy, including energy, healthcare, aerospace, and manufacturing, continues to attract new residents from across the country and globally.
- Infrastructure and Housing: Affordable housing and significant investment in infrastructure have contributed to the rapid development of the Greater Houston area.
However, some inner-city tracts in Houston show cooler blue areas, signaling slower growth or slight population decline, possibly due to urban redevelopment projects and shifting residential preferences.
Dallas-Fort Worth
In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, suburban counties to the north and west have become hotspots for population growth. Regions like Denton, Collin, and Tarrant counties have seen rapid development due to affordable housing, expanding infrastructure, and economic opportunities.
Austin (The Tech Hub) and San Antonio:
The Austin area stands out as one of the fastest-growing regions in Texas. Williamson and Travis counties have experienced substantial growth as tech companies and businesses have relocated to the region, attracting new residents seeking employment and a high quality of life.
San Antonio: Steady Growth Alongside Austin
While Austin has experienced rapid growth due to its emerging tech sector, San Antonio—just 80 miles south—has also seen steady population increases.
- Affordable Living: San Antonio offers lower housing costs compared to other major Texas cities, making it attractive for families and new residents.
- Economic Diversity: The city benefits from strong military ties, healthcare industries, and a growing tourism sector.
- Suburban Expansion: Suburban areas like New Braunfels and Schertz have become hotspots for population growth as commuters seek affordable housing while maintaining access to both San Antonio and Austin job markets.
Together, the Austin-San Antonio corridor highlights one of the fastest-growing regions in Texas, with population growth fueled by economic opportunities and quality of life.
Why Texas is Growing
- Economic Opportunities: Texas offers a robust job market, particularly in industries such as technology, oil and gas, manufacturing, and logistics.
- Affordable Living: Compared to other states, Texas provides lower housing costs, no state income tax, and ample land for development.
- Migration Trends: Texas is experiencing significant domestic migration, as individuals move from high-cost states like California in search of affordability and opportunities.
Population Growth Trends in Florida
Florida’s population growth is just as prominent, with strong trends observed across its urban centers, coastal areas, and suburbs. The maps below highlight red hotspots in regions like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville, where population increases have been particularly concentrated.
Orlando: The Growth Leader
The Orlando metropolitan area is a clear growth leader, with hot spots extending to surrounding counties like Orange, Osceola, and Seminole. These areas have attracted new residents due to job opportunities in tourism, healthcare, and construction.
Tampa: A Hub for Migration and Opportunity
Tampa and its surrounding areas, including Hillsborough and Pasco counties, have seen strong population growth.
- Coastal Attraction: Tampa’s desirable coastal location and access to the Gulf of Mexico continue to draw retirees, professionals, and families alike.
- Economic Development: Booming industries like healthcare, finance, and logistics contribute to job creation and in-migration.
- Suburban Expansion: Surrounding suburbs such as Wesley Chapel and Riverview are hotspots for new housing developments, attracting residents looking for affordable and spacious living options.
Florida Panhandle: Pensacola and Surrounding Areas
The Florida Panhandle, particularly near Pensacola, has emerged as a notable area of population growth.
- Military Presence: The Pensacola area benefits from a strong military presence, which supports economic stability and job growth.
- Retiree Attraction: The coastal communities, with their scenic beaches and slower-paced lifestyle, attract retirees and seasonal residents.
- Economic Diversification: New investments in tourism and local infrastructure are contributing to steady population growth in areas near Pensacola and Navarre.
Why Florida is Growing
- Climate and Lifestyle: Florida’s warm weather and coastal amenities continue to attract retirees and professionals.
- Retiree Migration: Florida remains a top destination for retirees, offering no state income tax and a large network of retirement communities.
- Economic Diversification: Florida’s economy, traditionally dependent on tourism, has expanded into sectors like healthcare, logistics, and finance.
Conclusion
Texas and Florida stand out as the leaders of U.S. population growth from 2018 to 2023. The analysis of census data using GIS and statistical techniques reveals significant urban and suburban hotspots, highlighting the economic and lifestyle factors that drive migration to these states. Houston’s thriving economy, Orlando’s booming suburbs, Tampa’s coastal appeal, and Jacksonville’s strategic location underscore the broader trends. These insights provide valuable information for policymakers, planners, and businesses as they prepare for continued population changes in the coming years.